// §6 · Macroeconomic & Inflation Forecasting
Oil Import Bill &
Inflation Impact
Live model tracking India's monthly oil import expenditure, current account deficit, rupee sensitivity and WPI inflation correlation — powered by EIA Open Data API, World Bank Indicators and Commodities-API.
⚡ March 2026 Alert: India's crude average price spiked to $85.43/bbl on Mar 14 — a 24% surge from $69.01 in February — as Hormuz Strait tensions escalated. India imports ~87% of its crude, making this the single largest driver of the current account deficit.
Monthly Import Bill
$18.7
Billion USD — March 2026
▲ 19.2% vs Feb 2026
Brent Crude Price
$85.4
USD/barrel — Mar 14, 2026
▲ 23.8% vs Feb avg
Import Volume
5.3
Million bpd — Feb 2026 record
▲ 11.3% YoY
FY2026 CAD Forecast
2.8%
% of GDP
▲ from 1.9% FY2025
USD / INR Rate
84.6
Rupees per dollar
▲ 2.1% depreciation YTD
Annual Import Bill Est.
$211
Billion USD — FY2026 est.
▲ 14% vs FY2025
01
Crude Sourcing Mix — Jan–Mar 2026
PPAC DATA · IMPORT SOURCE DIVERSIFICATION · YoY CHANGE
| Country | Jan–Mar 2026 (mbpd) | Jan–Mar 2025 (mbpd) | YoY Change | Share % | Risk Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 1.41 | 1.72 | ▼ 18.0% | 26.6% | HIGH RISK |
| Iraq | 1.05 | 0.98 | ▲ 7.1% | 19.8% | MODERATE |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.88 | 0.68 | ▲ 29.4% | 16.6% | STABLE |
| UAE | 0.62 | 0.55 | ▲ 12.7% | 11.7% | STABLE |
| USA | 0.41 | 0.28 | ▲ 46.4% | 7.7% | GROWING |
| Others | 0.93 | 0.85 | ▲ 9.4% | 17.5% | MIXED |
| Total | 5.30 | 5.06 | ▲ 4.7% | 100% | — |
02
Macroeconomic Charts — 2024 to 2026
EIA · COMMODITIES-API · WORLD BANK · TRADING ECONOMICS
EIA Open Data API · Monthly Volumes
India Crude Import Volume (mbpd) 2024–2026
Commodities-API · Brent vs World Bank FX
Brent Crude Price vs USD/INR Exchange Rate
World Bank Indicators API · CAD Model
Annual Oil Import Bill vs Current Account Deficit
EIA STEO API · Inflation Correlation
WPI Inflation % vs Crude Import Price Index
EIA STEO + World Bank FX · 3-Scenario Forecast Model
Monthly Oil Import Bill Forecast — Apr to Dec 2026 (USD Billion)
03
How Macro Figures Are Calculated
FORMULA REFERENCE · EIA · WORLD BANK · IEA · PPAC
📊 Key Calculation Formulas — §6 Macroeconomic Model
Monthly Import Bill (USD Bn)
= Import Vol (mbpd) × 30 days × Brent (USD/bbl)
÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 30 × $85.4 ÷ 1,000 = $13.6 Bn/mo
= Import Vol (mbpd) × 30 days × Brent (USD/bbl)
÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 30 × $85.4 ÷ 1,000 = $13.6 Bn/mo
Annual Import Bill (USD Bn)
= Import Vol (mbpd) × 365 × Brent (USD/bbl)
÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 365 × $109 avg ÷ 1,000 ≈ $211 Bn
= Import Vol (mbpd) × 365 × Brent (USD/bbl)
÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 365 × $109 avg ÷ 1,000 ≈ $211 Bn
CAD Impact (% of GDP)
= (Oil Import Bill − Oil Exports) ÷ Nominal GDP
≈ $211 Bn ÷ $3.9 Tn GDP ≈ 2.8% of GDP
= (Oil Import Bill − Oil Exports) ÷ Nominal GDP
≈ $211 Bn ÷ $3.9 Tn GDP ≈ 2.8% of GDP
Brent price source: Commodities-API (live) or EIA STEO API
Import volume: EIA /v2/international/data/ — IND crude imports
GDP: World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD indicator for India
WPI Inflation correlation: Brent 3-month lag vs India WPI — r² ≈ 0.74
CAD data: World Bank BN.CAB.XOKA.CD indicator — 2–3 yr lag
Scenarios: High = Hormuz closure (+15% price), Low = OPEC+ cut (−12%)
EIA Open Data API v2
World Bank Indicators API
Commodities-API (Brent)
PPAC Monthly Snapshots
IEA Oil 2025 Report
Trading Economics API
// §7 · ESG Reporting & Energy Transition
Carbon Tracking &
Energy Transition
Tracking India's oil import CO₂ emissions, ethanol blending milestones, EV adoption and renewable capacity against 2030 net-zero commitments. Data sourced from EIA, World Bank Climate API, PPAC, IEA Oil 2025 Report.
🌱 2025 Milestone: India achieved 20% ethanol blending in petrol — 5 years ahead of target. EVs reached 8% of new vehicle registrations in Q1 2026. Yet crude demand is still forecast to hit 6.66 mbpd by 2030 (IEA).
CO₂ from Oil Imports
1,205
MtCO₂ — FY2026 est.
▲ 5.3% YoY
Ethanol Blending Rate
20%
Achieved — 2025 (Target met)
▼ 3.2 bn litres displaced
EV Share — New Vehicles
8.4%
% registrations — Q1 2026
▲ from 5.1% in 2024
Renewable Capacity
213
GW installed — 2026
▲ from 172 GW in 2024
Net-Zero Target
2070
India committed target
44 years remaining
Fossil Fuel Dependency
87%
Crude oil imported share
Still critical dependency
01
Annual ESG Scorecard
WORLD BANK CLIMATE API · IEA · PPAC · 2020–2026
| Year | Import Vol (mbpd) | CO₂ from Oil Imports (MtCO₂) | Ethanol Blend % | EV Share % | Renewables (GW) | CO₂ Avoided (MtCO₂) | ESG Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4.42 | 1,004 | 6.0% | 0.8% | 94 | 28 | 32 / 100 |
| 2021 | 4.48 | 1,018 | 8.1% | 1.2% | 106 | 42 | 38 / 100 |
| 2022 | 4.61 | 1,048 | 10.2% | 2.1% | 122 | 68 | 44 / 100 |
| 2023 | 4.65 | 1,057 | 12.5% | 3.4% | 144 | 95 | 49 / 100 |
| 2024 | 4.80 | 1,091 | 15.8% | 5.1% | 172 | 132 | 55 / 100 |
| 2025 | 5.10 | 1,159 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 196 | 178 | 60 / 100 |
| 2026 Est. | 5.30 | 1,205 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 213 | 210 | 62 / 100 |
02
CO₂ Emissions & Energy Transition Charts
EIA · WORLD BANK · PPAC · IEA OIL 2025 · 2020–2026
EIA API · Carbon Conversion Model
CO₂ from Oil Imports vs CO₂ Avoided by Ethanol & EVs (MtCO₂)
PPAC + Govt Data · Policy Impact
Oil Displaced by Ethanol & EVs (Million Litres/Year)
IEA Forecast · Demand Trajectory
India Crude Demand Forecast to 2030 (mbpd)
Composite Score · ESG Progress Tracker
India Oil Transition Progress vs 2030 Targets
Ethanol Blending (Target: 20% ✓ Achieved)100%
EV Adoption (Target: 30% by 2030)8.4%
Renewable Capacity — 500 GW by 2030213 GW (42.6%)
Import Diversification (<20% single nation)26.6% (off-target)
CO₂ Intensity Reduction (Target: −15% by 2030)+19.8% (off-track)
SPR Coverage (Target: 90 days)30 days (33%)
EIA Open Data API (Carbon conversion)
World Bank EN.ATM.CO2E.KT
IEA Oil 2025 Report
PPAC Ethanol & Import Data
MoP&NG EV Statistics
CEEW Renewables Tracker
03
How CO₂ from Oil Imports Is Calculated
IEA EMISSION FACTOR METHOD · WORLD BANK API · EN.ATM.CO2E.KT
📐 Emission Factor Methodology — §7 ESG Model
CO₂ (MtCO₂)
= Import Volume (mbpd) × 365 days
× 0.43 tCO₂/barrel ÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 365 × 0.43 ÷ 1,000 = 1,205 MtCO₂
= Import Volume (mbpd) × 365 days
× 0.43 tCO₂/barrel ÷ 1,000
= 5.30 × 365 × 0.43 ÷ 1,000 = 1,205 MtCO₂
Factor derivation:
1 bbl = 0.1364 toe
× 0.833 tC/toe (IPCC carbon content)
× 3.667 (CO₂/C ratio = 44/12)
= 0.43 tCO₂ / barrel ✓
1 bbl = 0.1364 toe
× 0.833 tC/toe (IPCC carbon content)
× 3.667 (CO₂/C ratio = 44/12)
= 0.43 tCO₂ / barrel ✓
CO₂ Avoided by Ethanol (MtCO₂)
= Litres displaced × 0.00264 tCO₂/litre
≈ 9,200 Mn L × 0.00264 ≈ 24 MtCO₂/yr
= Litres displaced × 0.00264 tCO₂/litre
≈ 9,200 Mn L × 0.00264 ≈ 24 MtCO₂/yr
World Bank EN.ATM.CO2E.KT = India's total CO₂ (all sectors, not oil only) — used as cross-check
World Bank lag: Data available only to 2021–22; 2023–26 values estimated from IEA growth rates
ESG Score: Composite of 5 policy KPIs weighted equally — ethanol, EV, renewables, diversification, SPR
API endpoint: api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IND/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?format=json&mrv=10